Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Bailey wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Eller 50.5% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Bailey leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 58.7%
Defensive zone
Eller 84.1%
Neutral zone
Eller 77.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 75.6%
24.4%
75.6%
Bailey
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
9
(21 meetings)
12
9
Bailey
Eller
Last 10: Bailey 5-5 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
4
2
Bailey
Eller
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
5
6
Bailey
Eller
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
3
1
Bailey
Eller
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
51.1% (10,296)
-5.3%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
52.8% (621)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
46.7% (1,751)
-6.8%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Bailey shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Home / Away
Bailey
Eller
Home
46.6% (1,353)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
Bailey
Eller
P1
46.5%
51.2%
P2
44.8%
50.1%
P3
44.4%
50.2%
OT
51.1%
56.7%
Final 5 min
43.6%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 03:03 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 15:17 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 08:06 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 3 | 18:33 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 10, 2020 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 10, 2020 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 13:34 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 09:03 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 02:18 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 16:20 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 07:18 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 2 | 04:03 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 1 | 07:27 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 21, 2013 | OT | 01:44 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 9, 2012 | 2 | 19:39 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 9, 2012 | 2 | 15:59 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |