Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.6% vs 48.9%). Look for Bjugstad on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 43.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 49.7% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 53.4%
Defensive zone
Bailey 57.7%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 54.8%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Bailey
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Bailey
Bjugstad
Last 10: Bailey 3-7 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
3
Bailey
Bjugstad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bailey
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
3
Bailey
Bjugstad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (170)
48.3% (937)
+0.5%
Power Play
56.4% (39)
56.1% (148)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (19)
34.2% (38)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Bailey has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Bailey is 43.7% vs right-shot opponents (87).
Bailey shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Bailey
Bjugstad
Home
51.3% (156)
50.5% (574)
Away
45.8% (72)
47.2% (549)
By Period
Bailey
Bjugstad
P1
50.0%
52.4%
P2
45.6%
46.8%
P3
52.9%
45.5%
OT
33.3%
78.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
49.6%
Bjugstad
44.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2014 | 1 | 01:50 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 16:25 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 14:13 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 09:38 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 04:18 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 2 | 14:00 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 00:04 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |