Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Bailey wins 42.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 13-3 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Bailey 74.7%
Defensive zone
Bailey 65.0%
Neutral zone
Bailey 68.5%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 69.2%
69.2%
30.8%
Bailey
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
13
(16 meetings)
3
13
Bailey
Bjugstad
Last 10: Bailey 2-8 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
4
Bailey
Bjugstad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
3
Bailey
Bjugstad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
6
Bailey
Bjugstad
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
48.6% (6,634)
-2.8%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
55.2% (829)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
44.3% (614)
-4.4%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Bailey is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (995).
Bailey shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Home / Away
Bailey
Bjugstad
Home
46.6% (1,353)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Bailey
Bjugstad
P1
46.5%
49.0%
P2
44.8%
49.1%
P3
44.4%
48.4%
OT
51.1%
61.3%
Final 5 min
43.6%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2022 | 1 | 05:39 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 3 | 10:07 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 2 | 15:23 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 4, 2017 | 2 | 11:28 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 1 | 01:50 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 16:25 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 14:13 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 09:38 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 04:18 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 2 | 14:00 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 00:04 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 15:17 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 1 | 18:49 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |