Scouting Report
Nick Bonino holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Bailey wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Bonino 50.0% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 71.5%
Defensive zone
Bonino 90.9%
Neutral zone
Bonino 81.2%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 80.2%
19.8%
80.2%
Bailey
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
Bailey
Bonino
Last 9: Bailey 8-1 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
3
0
Bailey
Bonino
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bailey
Bonino
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
4
0
Bailey
Bonino
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
50.6% (8,315)
-4.8%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
54.1% (972)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
44.6% (1,693)
-4.7%
On power play, Bonino has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Bailey shoots left. Bonino is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (6,917).
Home / Away
Bailey
Bonino
Home
46.6% (1,353)
51.2% (5,507)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
48.8% (5,480)
By Period
Bailey
Bonino
P1
46.5%
50.6%
P2
44.8%
48.5%
P3
44.4%
51.1%
OT
51.1%
45.7%
Final 5 min
43.6%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 01:17 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 30, 2016 | 3 | 11:36 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 2 | 12:35 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 6, 2012 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 6, 2012 | 2 | 15:28 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 6, 2012 | 2 | 07:51 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 6, 2012 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 6, 2012 | 2 | 05:08 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 6, 2012 | 1 | 04:51 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |