Scouting Report
Josh Bailey holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Backstrom on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Bailey wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Backstrom shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 51.1% vs Backstrom 48.7% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backstrom 51.7%
Defensive zone
Backstrom 64.3%
Neutral zone
Backstrom 57.4%
Result
Nicklas Backstrom favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Bailey
Backstrom
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Bailey
Backstrom
Last 8: Bailey 2-6 Backstrom
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backstrom
1
2
Bailey
Backstrom
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backstrom
1
4
Bailey
Backstrom
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Backstrom
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (236)
48.5% (1,151)
+2.8%
Power Play
56.3% (32)
50.0% (176)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
48.2% (112)
-23.2%
On penalty kill, Backstrom has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backstrom shoots left. Bailey is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Bailey shoots left. Backstrom is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (889).
Home / Away
Bailey
Backstrom
Home
55.0% (140)
50.8% (783)
Away
47.7% (132)
46.0% (656)
By Period
Bailey
Backstrom
P1
57.1%
49.3%
P2
50.0%
46.6%
P3
47.8%
50.1%
OT
50.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
45.5%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
51.5%
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 08:26 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 18:24 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 14:26 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 13:51 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 3 | 12:55 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 1 | 17:18 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 1 | 04:30 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |