Scouting Report
Nicklas Backstrom holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Backstrom on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — Backstrom shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.9% vs Backstrom 50.3% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 80.4%
Defensive zone
Bailey 54.7%
Neutral zone
Bailey 68.2%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Bailey
Backstrom
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Bailey
Backstrom
Last 5: Bailey 1-4 Backstrom
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backstrom
0
2
Bailey
Backstrom
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backstrom
1
2
Bailey
Backstrom
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Backstrom
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (84)
51.4% (473)
-9.7%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
39.5% (38)
-10.9%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
33.3% (3)
+26.7%
On penalty kill, Bailey has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backstrom shoots left. Bailey is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Bailey shoots left. Backstrom is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Bailey
Backstrom
Home
37.9% (58)
53.6% (278)
Away
47.4% (38)
46.6% (236)
By Period
Bailey
Backstrom
P1
47.2%
51.5%
P2
41.7%
56.0%
P3
33.3%
43.5%
Final 5 min
36.0%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
41.7%
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:31 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 03:18 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:19 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:13 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 16:09 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |