Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Ryan wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.4% vs Norris 53.4% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 60.4%
Defensive zone
Ryan 71.2%
Neutral zone
Ryan 63.1%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
Ryan
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Ryan
Norris
Last 8: Ryan 5-3 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
0
1
Ryan
Norris
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
4
1
Ryan
Norris
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Norris
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
61.4% (220)
53.6% (560)
+7.8%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
56.0% (109)
+44.0%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
53.1% (98)
-1.4%
On power play, Ryan has a +44.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Ryan is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (194).
Ryan shoots right. Norris is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Ryan
Norris
Home
64.2% (137)
53.6% (373)
Away
55.8% (113)
54.1% (394)
By Period
Ryan
Norris
P1
58.9%
61.8%
P2
62.8%
51.7%
P3
59.3%
49.8%
Final 5 min
51.6%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
60.4%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 05:12 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 05:20 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 02:41 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 15:40 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 06:38 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |