Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.7% vs Carlsson 45.0% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 66.3%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 62.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 62.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Norris
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Norris
Carlsson
Last 10: Norris 5-5 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
2
Norris
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
3
1
Norris
Carlsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
5
Norris
Carlsson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (356)
45.5% (661)
+4.5%
Power Play
48.7% (76)
46.3% (82)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
33.3% (84)
+9.6%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Norris is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Norris shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Norris
Carlsson
Home
47.2% (193)
42.5% (428)
Away
51.6% (246)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Norris
Carlsson
P1
53.8%
45.4%
P2
48.2%
39.7%
P3
47.9%
48.5%
OT
0.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
45.6%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | OT | 00:53 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:05 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 15:40 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:44 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:10 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 14:37 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 11:57 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 02:41 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 02:26 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |