Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Norris wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 51.0% vs Dowd 53.3% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 87.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 57.2%
Neutral zone
Norris 58.4%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 63.8%
63.8%
36.2%
Norris
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Norris
Dowd
Last 8: Norris 1-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Norris
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
5
Norris
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (886)
55.4% (771)
-4.2%
Power Play
59.0% (83)
57.1% (7)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (67)
45.5% (165)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Norris is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (370).
Norris shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Norris
Dowd
Home
55.6% (487)
58.2% (462)
Away
47.0% (549)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Norris
Dowd
P1
54.8%
55.6%
P2
51.3%
50.5%
P3
48.0%
53.9%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2022 | OT | 00:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 22, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 15:26 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 05:20 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 13:19 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |