Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.7% vs 49.0%). Norris wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.7% vs Dowd 49.1% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 80.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 82.3%
17.7%
82.3%
Norris
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Norris
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Norris
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (356)
51.7% (644)
-1.7%
Power Play
48.7% (76)
0.0% (2)
+48.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
41.6% (221)
+1.3%
On power play, Norris has a +48.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Norris is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (145).
Norris shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Norris
Dowd
Home
47.2% (193)
48.6% (451)
Away
51.6% (246)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Norris
Dowd
P1
53.8%
49.1%
P2
48.2%
47.3%
P3
47.9%
51.4%
OT
0.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
45.6%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 17:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:23 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |