Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.7% vs Cates 45.5% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 74.4%
Defensive zone
Norris 73.6%
Neutral zone
Norris 70.2%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Norris
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Norris
Cates
Last 5: Norris 4-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
3
1
Norris
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (356)
45.4% (712)
+4.6%
Power Play
48.7% (76)
42.2% (102)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
44.7% (47)
-1.8%
On power play, Norris has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Norris is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Norris shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Norris
Cates
Home
47.2% (193)
46.3% (423)
Away
51.6% (246)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Norris
Cates
P1
53.8%
46.3%
P2
48.2%
47.1%
P3
47.9%
42.1%
OT
0.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
45.6%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 10:10 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 05:12 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 16:16 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 09:04 | Neutral | Josh Norris |