Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.5%). Look for Carpenter on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Norris wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 51.0% vs Carpenter 51.2% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 72.2%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 71.5%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 52.4%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Norris
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Norris
Carpenter
Last 7: Norris 3-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Carpenter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Norris
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
3
Norris
Carpenter
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (886)
53.2% (299)
-2.0%
Power Play
59.0% (83)
33.3% (3)
+25.7%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (67)
46.5% (86)
-7.7%
On power play, Norris has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Norris is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (370).
Norris shoots left. Carpenter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Norris
Carpenter
Home
55.6% (487)
54.6% (207)
Away
47.0% (549)
48.1% (181)
By Period
Norris
Carpenter
P1
54.8%
52.3%
P2
51.3%
51.5%
P3
48.0%
50.8%
Final 5 min
54.4%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.1%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 18:24 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 15:49 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 15:41 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 09:07 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 02:39 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 08:46 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |