Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Norris wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 53.4% vs Aho 54.9% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 68.7%
Defensive zone
Norris 75.3%
Neutral zone
Norris 53.4%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Norris
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Norris
Aho
Last 9: Norris 3-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
5
Norris
Aho
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (560)
54.5% (870)
-0.9%
Power Play
56.0% (109)
62.4% (266)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (98)
37.1% (62)
+16.0%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Norris is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Norris shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Norris
Aho
Home
53.6% (373)
53.9% (603)
Away
54.1% (394)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Norris
Aho
P1
61.8%
54.1%
P2
51.7%
55.0%
P3
49.8%
57.4%
OT
27.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.7%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
53.8%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 13, 2024 | 3 | 16:34 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 13, 2024 | 3 | 16:26 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 13, 2024 | 3 | 15:19 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 16:46 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 19:18 | Neutral | Josh Norris |