Scouting Report
Justin Danforth holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Danforth on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danforth 49.8% vs Cates 43.2% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Danforth 76.9%
Defensive zone
Danforth 86.0%
Neutral zone
Danforth 78.2%
Result
Justin Danforth favored at 80.8%
80.8%
19.2%
Danforth
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Danforth
Cates
Last 7: Danforth 5-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Danforth
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
3
0
Danforth
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
2
1
Danforth
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danforth
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (1,018)
44.1% (2,742)
+7.7%
Power Play
50.0% (36)
43.0% (242)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
40.1% (207)
34.9% (373)
+5.2%
On even strength, Danforth has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Danforth is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (937).
Danforth shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
Danforth
Cates
Home
51.4% (619)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
48.3% (642)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Danforth
Cates
P1
49.1%
44.5%
P2
51.4%
43.5%
P3
48.3%
41.2%
OT
64.3%
29.4%
Final 5 min
52.3%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
49.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 09:49 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:24 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 15:41 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 15:20 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 12:32 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 01:45 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 01:34 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |