Scouting Report
Justin Dowling holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Dowling wins 46.2% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.9% vs Hartman 45.3% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 57.7%
Defensive zone
Hartman 59.8%
Neutral zone
Hartman 59.8%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Dowling
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Dowling
Hartman
Last 6: Dowling 2-4 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
2
0
Dowling
Hartman
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
2
Dowling
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
2
Dowling
Hartman
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (652)
45.2% (4,235)
+4.2%
Power Play
40.6% (32)
47.4% (443)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
42.4% (262)
-9.1%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Dowling is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Dowling shoots left. Hartman is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (3,559).
Home / Away
Dowling
Hartman
Home
48.2% (301)
46.7% (2,589)
Away
49.2% (392)
43.6% (2,351)
By Period
Dowling
Hartman
P1
47.6%
46.0%
P2
50.4%
42.9%
P3
48.3%
46.8%
Final 5 min
52.2%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.8%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 05:56 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:07 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 17:41 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:10 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 02:05 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |