Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dowling wins 46.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.9% vs Carrick 52.1% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Dowling 78.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 65.1%
Neutral zone
Dowling 56.3%
Result
Justin Dowling favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Dowling
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Dowling
Carrick
Last 10: Dowling 4-6 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowling
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
2
1
Dowling
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
Dowling
Carrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (652)
52.1% (2,513)
-2.7%
Power Play
40.6% (32)
61.3% (75)
-20.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
50.7% (430)
-17.4%
On power play, Carrick has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Dowling is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Dowling shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Dowling
Carrick
Home
48.2% (301)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
49.2% (392)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Dowling
Carrick
P1
47.6%
51.8%
P2
50.4%
52.2%
P3
48.3%
52.4%
Final 5 min
52.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.8%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 07:02 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:26 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:35 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 08:24 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 08:16 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 3 | 19:49 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:55 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:43 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 2 | 05:47 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |