Scouting Report
Justin Dowling holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.7% vs Lorentz 46.6% (+11.9%)
Offensive zone
Dowling 51.8%
Defensive zone
Dowling 50.7%
Neutral zone
Dowling 51.7%
Result
Justin Dowling favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Dowling
Lorentz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (318)
30.8% (26)
+17.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
57.1% (7)
-7.1%
On even strength, Dowling has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Dowling is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Dowling shoots left. Lorentz is 36.8% vs left-shot opponents (19).
Home / Away
Dowling
Lorentz
Home
49.0% (145)
35.0% (20)
Away
47.8% (182)
38.5% (13)
By Period
Dowling
Lorentz
P1
48.1%
38.5%
P2
49.1%
37.5%
P3
47.8%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.3%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
36.4%