Justin Dowling vs Steven Lorentz
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.8% vs 48.5%). Look for Dowling on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.9% vs Lorentz 48.6% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowling 50.9%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 50.9%
Neutral zone
Dowling 54.0%
Result
Justin Dowling favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Dowling
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Dowling
Lorentz
Last 7: Dowling 4-3 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowling
Lorentz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowling
3
2
Dowling
Lorentz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (652)
48.9% (1,118)
+0.5%
Power Play
40.6% (32)
50.0% (26)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
41.9% (86)
-8.6%
On power play, Lorentz has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Dowling is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (455).
Dowling shoots left. Lorentz is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Dowling
Lorentz
Home
48.2% (301)
50.8% (606)
Away
49.2% (392)
46.2% (624)
By Period
Dowling
Lorentz
P1
47.6%
53.0%
P2
50.4%
46.8%
P3
48.3%
46.1%
Final 5 min
52.2%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.8%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 2 | 03:27 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 02:00 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 2 | 02:55 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 16:54 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 09:33 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 04:31 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |