Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 55.1% vs Hayes 51.7% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 62.5%
Defensive zone
Henrique 90.3%
Neutral zone
Henrique 80.6%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Henrique
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Henrique
Hayes
Last 6: Henrique 5-1 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
1
Henrique
Hayes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (723)
51.6% (386)
+5.9%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
53.2% (47)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (231)
60.0% (20)
-14.5%
On power play, Henrique has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Henrique is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (725).
Henrique shoots left. Hayes is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Henrique
Hayes
Home
56.4% (518)
50.5% (200)
Away
54.9% (492)
53.4% (253)
By Period
Henrique
Hayes
P1
56.0%
58.8%
P2
55.2%
49.3%
P3
56.2%
48.0%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.6%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:16 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 12:55 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:19 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |