Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Hayes wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 43.8% vs Johansen 52.4% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 77.9%
Defensive zone
Johansen 60.0%
Neutral zone
Johansen 65.7%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Hayes
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Hayes
Johansen
Last 9: Hayes 5-4 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Hayes
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
1
Hayes
Johansen
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
2
Hayes
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
42.7% (478)
49.4% (1,010)
-6.7%
Power Play
42.9% (98)
62.3% (236)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (31)
67.2% (67)
-22.0%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Hayes is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (219).
Hayes shoots left. Johansen is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (950).
Home / Away
Hayes
Johansen
Home
43.5% (232)
54.7% (655)
Away
42.4% (375)
50.6% (658)
By Period
Hayes
Johansen
P1
40.1%
52.2%
P2
44.8%
50.7%
P3
42.4%
54.8%
OT
80.0%
53.6%
Final 5 min
44.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 19:51 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 14:07 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 16:29 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 16:23 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 08:26 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 03:48 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 03:56 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |