Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Johansen 52.8% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 57.3%
Defensive zone
Johansen 54.1%
Neutral zone
Johansen 53.2%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Hayes
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Hayes
Johansen
Last 6: Hayes 3-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Hayes
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Johansen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
1
Hayes
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
51.9% (597)
+4.7%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
57.9% (133)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
54.3% (81)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Hayes shoots left. Johansen is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (584).
Home / Away
Hayes
Johansen
Home
58.0% (405)
55.8% (387)
Away
56.1% (433)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Hayes
Johansen
P1
54.7%
50.0%
P2
55.7%
56.2%
P3
60.2%
52.6%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
58.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 04:47 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 04:14 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 01:55 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 11:19 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 05:58 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 04:43 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |