Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs Kuraly 53.7% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 80.2%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 56.4%
Neutral zone
Hayes 63.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Hayes
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Hayes
Kuraly
Last 6: Hayes 2-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Hayes
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
3
Hayes
Kuraly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
55.3% (515)
-3.7%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
55.6% (9)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
44.8% (58)
+15.2%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Hayes is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Hayes shoots left. Kuraly is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Hayes
Kuraly
Home
50.5% (200)
57.3% (293)
Away
53.4% (253)
51.2% (289)
By Period
Hayes
Kuraly
P1
58.8%
53.8%
P2
49.3%
51.5%
P3
48.0%
57.6%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2025 | 1 | 19:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 21, 2025 | 1 | 02:12 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:09 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 13:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:15 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |