Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Girgensons 48.5% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 72.4%
Defensive zone
Hayes 80.6%
Neutral zone
Hayes 73.4%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Hayes
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Hayes
Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
0
Hayes
Girgensons
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
46.3% (147)
+10.3%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
66.7% (3)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
51.1% (47)
+14.6%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Hayes shoots left. Girgensons is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (114).
Home / Away
Hayes
Girgensons
Home
58.0% (405)
34.2% (79)
Away
56.1% (433)
56.8% (118)
By Period
Hayes
Girgensons
P1
54.7%
56.5%
P2
55.7%
38.1%
P3
60.2%
47.7%
Final 5 min
58.9%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 02:25 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |