Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Rooney wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rooney 46.4% vs Sturm 56.1% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rooney 64.0%
Defensive zone
Rooney 67.4%
Neutral zone
Rooney 66.0%
Result
Kevin Rooney favored at 66.2%
66.2%
33.8%
Rooney
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Rooney
Sturm
Last 8: Rooney 3-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Rooney
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Rooney
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Rooney
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rooney
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (2,042)
57.1% (2,719)
-10.4%
Power Play
41.7% (48)
61.3% (62)
-19.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (267)
51.0% (498)
-7.6%
On power play, Sturm has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Rooney is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,570).
Rooney shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Rooney
Sturm
Home
47.4% (1,227)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
44.9% (1,130)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Rooney
Sturm
P1
48.1%
56.5%
P2
47.1%
54.9%
P3
43.6%
57.4%
OT
12.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
47.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rooney
40.0%▼
47.0%
46.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 02:00 | Neutral | Kevin Rooney |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 12:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 02:54 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 02:41 | Defensive | Kevin Rooney |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 02:22 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 12:30 | Neutral | Kevin Rooney |