Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.3% vs Carlsson 45.0% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 60.3%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 94.9%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 76.5%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 79.8%
79.8%
20.2%
Stenlund
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Stenlund
Carlsson
Last 7: Stenlund 5-2 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stenlund
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
1
Stenlund
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (615)
45.5% (661)
+10.6%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
46.3% (82)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (307)
33.3% (84)
+18.8%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Stenlund is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Stenlund shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Carlsson
Home
57.0% (458)
42.5% (428)
Away
52.6% (511)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Stenlund
Carlsson
P1
55.1%
45.4%
P2
53.3%
39.7%
P3
56.4%
48.5%
OT
42.1%
41.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 08:34 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 05:30 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 07:35 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |