Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.0% vs Carlsson 41.2% (+13.3%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 12-3 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Stenlund 80.5%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 98.0%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 94.5%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 92.9%
92.9%
7.1%
Stenlund
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
3
(15 meetings)
12
3
Stenlund
Carlsson
Last 10: Stenlund 8-2 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
1
Stenlund
Carlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
7
2
Stenlund
Carlsson
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,703)
41.0% (1,844)
+14.3%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
42.9% (154)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (919)
35.0% (120)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,807).
Stenlund shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Carlsson
Home
54.3% (1,848)
42.2% (1,044)
Away
53.9% (1,890)
39.4% (1,074)
By Period
Stenlund
Carlsson
P1
56.4%
43.3%
P2
53.3%
36.5%
P3
52.8%
43.2%
OT
52.9%
40.7%
Final 5 min
53.4%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 08:34 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 05:30 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 07:35 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 09:50 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 04:39 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 19:59 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 01:56 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 16:24 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |