Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.4% vs 51.7%). Look for McTavish on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stenlund wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 51.2% vs McTavish 51.5% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 72.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 75.3%
Neutral zone
McTavish 56.0%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 64.2%
35.8%
64.2%
Stenlund
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Stenlund
McTavish
Last 6: Stenlund 1-5 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
5
Stenlund
McTavish
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (592)
51.3% (725)
+3.1%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
55.8% (113)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (229)
28.6% (7)
+15.5%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Stenlund is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (644).
Stenlund shoots right. McTavish is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (265).
Home / Away
Stenlund
McTavish
Home
50.7% (402)
52.0% (454)
Away
52.0% (433)
51.4% (391)
By Period
Stenlund
McTavish
P1
56.5%
51.3%
P2
52.4%
50.4%
P3
45.2%
53.3%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:22 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 09:59 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 16:24 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 12:08 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 3 | 18:47 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |