Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stenlund wins 61.8% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 58.3% vs McTavish 50.6% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stenlund 52.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 90.8%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 77.5%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 75.3%
75.3%
24.7%
Stenlund
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Stenlund
McTavish
Last 10: Stenlund 6-4 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
2
Stenlund
McTavish
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
1
Stenlund
McTavish
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
1
Stenlund
McTavish
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (797)
51.1% (769)
+7.5%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
50.6% (178)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
60.5% (233)
28.6% (14)
+31.9%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +31.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Stenlund shoots right. McTavish is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Stenlund
McTavish
Home
58.6% (548)
52.3% (461)
Away
59.7% (506)
49.2% (500)
By Period
Stenlund
McTavish
P1
60.2%
51.5%
P2
59.1%
54.0%
P3
58.3%
47.1%
OT
58.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.8%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 03:13 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 19:38 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 04:07 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 19:25 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:19 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 02:39 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:55 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2 | 07:13 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 1 | 15:44 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 1 | 08:54 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |