Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stenlund wins 61.8% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 58.3% vs Cates 45.1% (+14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 81.0%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 88.9%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 86.0%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 86.2%
86.2%
13.8%
Stenlund
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Stenlund
Cates
Last 7: Stenlund 5-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stenlund
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
1
Stenlund
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (797)
46.7% (912)
+11.9%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
33.9% (56)
+28.6%
Penalty Kill
60.5% (233)
35.0% (137)
+25.5%
On power play, Stenlund has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Stenlund shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Cates
Home
58.6% (548)
46.1% (521)
Away
59.7% (506)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Stenlund
Cates
P1
60.2%
48.0%
P2
59.1%
42.3%
P3
58.3%
44.3%
OT
58.6%
31.3%
Final 5 min
58.8%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | OT | 02:40 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 07:36 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 07:26 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:34 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:16 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |