Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +18.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.3% vs Kelly 41.6% (+18.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 58.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 90.3%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 65.5%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 75.4%
75.4%
24.6%
Stenlund
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stenlund
Kelly
Last 5: Stenlund 3-2 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Kelly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
2
Stenlund
Kelly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (615)
36.3% (157)
+19.8%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
0.0% (1)
+53.2%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (307)
45.5% (11)
+6.6%
On power play, Stenlund has a +53.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Stenlund is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Stenlund shoots right. Kelly is 34.9% vs right-shot opponents (63).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Kelly
Home
57.0% (458)
35.9% (78)
Away
52.6% (511)
37.4% (91)
By Period
Stenlund
Kelly
P1
55.1%
34.3%
P2
53.3%
36.0%
P3
56.4%
40.4%
Final 5 min
57.6%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
36.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 14:44 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:42 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 02:43 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |