Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +16.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 61.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 58.3% vs Kelly 43.9% (+16.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 92.3%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 83.6%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 90.7%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 89.6%
89.6%
10.4%
Stenlund
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Stenlund
Kelly
Last 5: Stenlund 4-1 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
1
Stenlund
Kelly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (797)
44.8% (556)
+13.8%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
0.0% (2)
+62.5%
Penalty Kill
60.5% (233)
36.8% (144)
+23.7%
On power play, Stenlund has a +62.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Stenlund shoots right. Kelly is 41.2% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Kelly
Home
58.6% (548)
44.8% (368)
Away
59.7% (506)
41.0% (334)
By Period
Stenlund
Kelly
P1
60.2%
46.7%
P2
59.1%
48.0%
P3
58.3%
34.8%
OT
58.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.8%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 03:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 17:50 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 19:19 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |