Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 54.8%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Carrick 54.1% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 50.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 62.5%
Neutral zone
Carrick 52.6%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Stenlund
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Stenlund
Carrick
Last 5: Stenlund 1-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Stenlund
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Stenlund
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (746)
55.6% (477)
+0.4%
Power Play
51.0% (49)
66.7% (3)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (346)
48.3% (60)
+2.6%
On power play, Carrick has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Stenlund is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (346).
Stenlund shoots right. Carrick is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (147).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Carrick
Home
55.8% (565)
58.1% (270)
Away
52.8% (576)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Stenlund
Carrick
P1
53.2%
56.4%
P2
53.9%
52.5%
P3
55.9%
55.6%
OT
45.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▬
52.0%
54.3%
Carrick
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:41 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |