Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 51.2% vs Carrick 53.0% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 61.0%
Defensive zone
Carrick 64.7%
Neutral zone
Carrick 56.1%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Stenlund
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Stenlund
Carrick
Last 8: Stenlund 5-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Stenlund
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Stenlund
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
0
Stenlund
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (592)
53.9% (521)
+0.5%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
57.1% (35)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (229)
51.5% (229)
-7.4%
On power play, Carrick has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Stenlund is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (191).
Stenlund shoots right. Carrick is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Carrick
Home
50.7% (402)
52.7% (408)
Away
52.0% (433)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Stenlund
Carrick
P1
56.5%
51.4%
P2
52.4%
56.6%
P3
45.2%
52.1%
Final 5 min
48.1%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:43 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:39 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 2 | 06:51 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 2 | 03:07 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 1 | 14:50 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 1 | 01:52 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |