Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.0% vs Carrick 52.1% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Stenlund 53.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 56.4%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 50.8%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Stenlund
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Stenlund
Carrick
Last 10: Stenlund 3-7 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
4
2
Stenlund
Carrick
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Stenlund
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Stenlund
Carrick
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,703)
52.1% (2,513)
+3.2%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
61.3% (75)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (919)
50.7% (430)
-0.1%
On power play, Carrick has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Stenlund is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (931).
Stenlund shoots right. Carrick is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Carrick
Home
54.3% (1,848)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
53.9% (1,890)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Stenlund
Carrick
P1
56.4%
51.8%
P2
53.3%
52.2%
P3
52.8%
52.4%
Final 5 min
53.4%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:41 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 04:48 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 14:25 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 02:09 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:43 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:39 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 2 | 06:51 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 2 | 03:07 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 1 | 14:50 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 1 | 01:52 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |