Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Stenlund wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.3% vs Aho 50.0% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 85.3%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 70.4%
Neutral zone
Aho 61.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 73.1%
26.9%
73.1%
Stenlund
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Stenlund
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Stenlund
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Stenlund
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (615)
49.9% (851)
+6.2%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
53.5% (144)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (307)
43.3% (60)
+8.8%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Stenlund is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Stenlund shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Aho
Home
57.0% (458)
53.2% (554)
Away
52.6% (511)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Stenlund
Aho
P1
55.1%
49.1%
P2
53.3%
50.8%
P3
56.4%
49.7%
OT
42.1%
58.8%
Final 5 min
57.6%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 14:36 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |