Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Stenlund wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.0% vs Aho 50.4% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 83.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 78.2%
Neutral zone
Aho 55.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 69.7%
30.3%
69.7%
Stenlund
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Stenlund
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Stenlund
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Stenlund
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (500)
50.5% (647)
+4.5%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
54.2% (131)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (243)
38.1% (42)
+12.5%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Stenlund is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (511).
Stenlund shoots right. Aho is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Aho
Home
55.5% (346)
53.9% (445)
Away
51.7% (437)
46.4% (375)
By Period
Stenlund
Aho
P1
54.4%
48.7%
P2
51.7%
51.4%
P3
54.8%
50.8%
OT
42.9%
58.8%
Final 5 min
56.0%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
48.0%▼
53.5%
53.4%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 14:36 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |