Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Stenlund wins 61.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 58.3% vs Aho 54.9% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 91.9%
Defensive zone
Aho 51.0%
Neutral zone
Aho 71.9%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 81.7%
18.3%
81.7%
Stenlund
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Stenlund
Aho
Last 10: Stenlund 2-8 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
7
Stenlund
Aho
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Stenlund
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (797)
54.5% (870)
+4.1%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
62.4% (266)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
60.5% (233)
37.1% (62)
+23.4%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Stenlund shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Aho
Home
58.6% (548)
53.9% (603)
Away
59.7% (506)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Stenlund
Aho
P1
60.2%
54.1%
P2
59.1%
55.0%
P3
58.3%
57.4%
OT
58.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.8%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 18:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 01:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 08:34 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 08:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |