Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Stenlund wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 51.2% vs Aho 53.8% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 83.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 83.4%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 54.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 64.1%
35.9%
64.1%
Stenlund
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Stenlund
Aho
Last 9: Stenlund 3-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
6
Stenlund
Aho
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (592)
51.2% (785)
+3.2%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
63.8% (213)
-20.9%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (229)
57.9% (57)
-13.8%
On power play, Aho has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Stenlund is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (644).
Stenlund shoots right. Aho is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (406).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Aho
Home
50.7% (402)
54.9% (548)
Away
52.0% (433)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Stenlund
Aho
P1
56.5%
52.8%
P2
52.4%
58.9%
P3
45.2%
50.6%
OT
100.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:16 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2 | 14:52 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 09:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 06:49 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 03:01 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |