Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stenlund wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 51.2% vs Hertl 56.8% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 60.5%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 86.2%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 68.6%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
Stenlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Stenlund
Hertl
Last 7: Stenlund 1-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
Stenlund
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stenlund
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (592)
57.0% (718)
-2.6%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
64.9% (188)
-22.0%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (229)
44.2% (77)
-0.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stenlund is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (644).
Stenlund shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Hertl
Home
50.7% (402)
59.2% (463)
Away
52.0% (433)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Stenlund
Hertl
P1
56.5%
56.3%
P2
52.4%
55.4%
P3
45.2%
60.5%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2023 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 1 | 06:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 17:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 15:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 13:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 13:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |