Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stenlund wins 61.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 58.3% vs Hertl 55.4% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 83.9%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 76.0%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 51.1%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Stenlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Stenlund
Hertl
Last 10: Stenlund 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Stenlund
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
5
4
Stenlund
Hertl
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stenlund
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (797)
54.1% (717)
+4.5%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
61.9% (210)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
60.5% (233)
58.1% (31)
+2.4%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Stenlund shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Hertl
Home
58.6% (548)
58.1% (492)
Away
59.7% (506)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Stenlund
Hertl
P1
60.2%
57.1%
P2
59.1%
54.0%
P3
58.3%
56.6%
OT
58.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
58.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 06:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 03:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:06 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 09:02 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 06:59 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 19:11 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 11:34 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 2, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 03:06 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |