Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Stenlund wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.3% vs Hertl 57.2% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 79.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 89.5%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 57.9%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Stenlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
11
(19 meetings)
8
11
Stenlund
Hertl
Last 10: Stenlund 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
7
Stenlund
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
8
2
Stenlund
Hertl
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Stenlund
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (615)
58.1% (823)
-2.0%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
56.2% (265)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (307)
62.9% (35)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stenlund is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Stenlund shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Hertl
Home
57.0% (458)
59.7% (561)
Away
52.6% (511)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Stenlund
Hertl
P1
55.1%
51.6%
P2
53.3%
63.8%
P3
56.4%
58.6%
OT
42.1%
28.6%
Final 5 min
57.6%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 19:02 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 18:32 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 18:17 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 16:01 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 02:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 14:31 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 05:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 15:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 08:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 13:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:56 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 02:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |