Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.4% vs 51.9%). Look for Nosek on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 51.2% vs Nosek 51.4% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 61.9%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 69.8%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 53.3%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Stenlund
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Stenlund
Nosek
Last 6: Stenlund 3-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stenlund
Nosek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Stenlund
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (592)
54.4% (215)
+0.0%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
0.0% (1)
+42.9%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (229)
23.5% (17)
+20.6%
On power play, Stenlund has a +42.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Stenlund is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (644).
Stenlund shoots right. Nosek is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Nosek
Home
50.7% (402)
50.4% (127)
Away
52.0% (433)
53.8% (106)
By Period
Stenlund
Nosek
P1
56.5%
51.4%
P2
52.4%
51.3%
P3
45.2%
53.2%
Final 5 min
48.1%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 04:27 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 01:44 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:42 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 06:30 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |