Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.1% vs 53.7%). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.0% vs Nosek 53.6% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 60.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 60.8%
Neutral zone
Nosek 50.3%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Stenlund
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Stenlund
Nosek
Last 7: Stenlund 4-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stenlund
Nosek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Stenlund
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,703)
54.9% (2,674)
+0.4%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
44.7% (47)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (919)
47.4% (424)
+3.2%
On power play, Stenlund has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,807).
Stenlund shoots right. Nosek is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,203).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Nosek
Home
54.3% (1,848)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
53.9% (1,890)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Stenlund
Nosek
P1
56.4%
52.3%
P2
53.3%
54.0%
P3
52.8%
54.6%
OT
52.9%
75.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 04:27 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 01:44 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:42 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 06:30 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 00:50 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |