Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacLean 47.9% vs Carrick 52.1% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
MacLean 70.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 68.5%
Neutral zone
MacLean 54.8%
Result
Kyle MacLean favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
MacLean
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
MacLean
Carrick
Last 10: MacLean 4-6 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacLean
4
3
MacLean
Carrick
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
MacLean
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
MacLean
Carrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacLean
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (849)
52.1% (2,513)
-4.9%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
61.3% (75)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (30)
50.7% (430)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, MacLean has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. MacLean is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (315).
MacLean shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
MacLean
Carrick
Home
46.9% (426)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
48.4% (461)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
MacLean
Carrick
P1
46.6%
51.8%
P2
49.7%
52.2%
P3
46.5%
52.4%
Final 5 min
54.9%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacLean
56.0%▬
56.5%
47.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 03:20 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:18 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 05:14 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 05:49 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 01:51 | Defensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 14:51 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 13:41 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:55 | Defensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 16:00 | Offensive | Kyle MacLean |