Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.3% vs 52.2%). Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Eller 51.9% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 84.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 85.9%
Neutral zone
Eller 58.0%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Tkachuk
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Tkachuk
Eller
Last 6: Tkachuk 2-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
1
Tkachuk
Eller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
3
Tkachuk
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
52.8% (650)
-1.8%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
69.2% (13)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
45.5% (88)
+4.5%
On power play, Eller has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Eller is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Eller
Home
50.0% (140)
52.6% (340)
Away
52.2% (207)
51.8% (411)
By Period
Tkachuk
Eller
P1
54.3%
52.4%
P2
50.0%
54.1%
P3
49.5%
50.0%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
51.3%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | OT | 03:35 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 3, 2025 | OT | 02:04 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 3, 2025 | OT | 01:49 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 02:33 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 02:44 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:20 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |