Scouting Report
Josh Bailey holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Bailey wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 51.1% vs Eller 49.0% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 74.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 73.4%
Neutral zone
Bailey 51.0%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 61.5%
38.5%
61.5%
Bailey
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Bailey
Eller
Last 6: Bailey 3-3 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
1
0
Bailey
Eller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Bailey
Eller
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Bailey
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (236)
49.9% (821)
+1.4%
Power Play
56.3% (32)
52.7% (74)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
43.9% (214)
-18.9%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Bailey is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Bailey shoots left. Eller is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (720).
Home / Away
Bailey
Eller
Home
55.0% (140)
49.4% (559)
Away
47.7% (132)
48.5% (550)
By Period
Bailey
Eller
P1
57.1%
50.1%
P2
50.0%
46.7%
P3
47.8%
49.9%
OT
50.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
45.5%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
51.5%
Eller
54.0%▼
58.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 16:20 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 07:18 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 2 | 04:03 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 1 | 07:27 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |