Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 52.0% vs Barzal 46.3% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 71.7%
Defensive zone
Eller 84.4%
Neutral zone
Eller 53.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Eller
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Eller
Barzal
Last 6: Eller 3-3 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
3
Eller
Barzal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
3
0
Eller
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (742)
43.0% (114)
+9.8%
On even strength, Eller has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Eller is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Eller shoots left. Barzal is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (98).
Home / Away
Eller
Barzal
Home
54.5% (448)
35.8% (53)
Away
50.2% (484)
49.2% (61)
By Period
Eller
Barzal
P1
52.8%
44.2%
P2
50.9%
38.5%
P3
53.4%
46.9%
Final 5 min
55.6%
38.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 04:22 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 06:12 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |