Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +20.2% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.7% vs Kelly 41.6% (+20.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 74.8%
Defensive zone
Eller 87.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 79.3%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Eller
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Eller
Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
2
0
Eller
Kelly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (434)
36.3% (157)
+20.2%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
0.0% (1)
+77.8%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
45.5% (11)
+11.0%
On power play, Eller has a +77.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Eller is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Eller shoots left. Kelly is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (106).
Home / Away
Eller
Kelly
Home
53.1% (211)
35.9% (78)
Away
59.7% (278)
37.4% (91)
By Period
Eller
Kelly
P1
55.4%
34.3%
P2
58.1%
36.0%
P3
57.1%
40.4%
Final 5 min
60.5%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
36.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 03:21 | Neutral | Lars Eller |