Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 51.9% vs Aho 54.9% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 78.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 67.8%
Neutral zone
Eller 51.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Eller
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Eller
Aho
Last 6: Eller 4-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Eller
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
3
2
Eller
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
2
0
Eller
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (650)
54.5% (870)
-1.7%
Power Play
69.2% (13)
62.4% (266)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (88)
37.1% (62)
+8.4%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Eller is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Eller shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Eller
Aho
Home
52.6% (340)
53.9% (603)
Away
51.8% (411)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Eller
Aho
P1
52.4%
54.1%
P2
54.1%
55.0%
P3
50.0%
57.4%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 08:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 07:58 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 14:26 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2 | 04:16 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 08:01 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 01:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |