Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dauphin wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dauphin 44.4% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-14.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dauphin 71.4%
Defensive zone
Dauphin 70.2%
Neutral zone
Dauphin 71.9%
Result
Laurent Dauphin favored at 70.4%
70.4%
29.6%
Dauphin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Dauphin
O'Reilly
Last 5: Dauphin 1-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Dauphin
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Dauphin
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dauphin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (214)
56.6% (1,064)
-13.6%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
60.4% (260)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
29.2% (24)
54.0% (261)
-24.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Dauphin is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (159).
Dauphin shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Dauphin
O'Reilly
Home
47.2% (125)
54.9% (801)
Away
36.9% (122)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Dauphin
O'Reilly
P1
42.0%
58.0%
P2
42.3%
56.7%
P3
43.0%
55.4%
OT
0.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
37.5%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dauphin
60.0%▲
51.5%
42.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 13:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 10:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 04:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 15:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 10:06 | Defensive | Laurent Dauphin |