Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (40.7% vs 40.8%). Look for Carlsson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Bedard wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs Carlsson 41.2% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 50.2%
Defensive zone
Bedard 60.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 53.1%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Bedard
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
14
(23 meetings)
9
14
Bedard
Carlsson
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
2
Bedard
Carlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
4
Bedard
Carlsson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
7
8
Bedard
Carlsson
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
41.0% (1,844)
-0.9%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
42.9% (154)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
35.0% (120)
+15.0%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Bedard shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Home / Away
Bedard
Carlsson
Home
43.3% (785)
42.2% (1,044)
Away
38.5% (896)
39.4% (1,074)
By Period
Bedard
Carlsson
P1
39.0%
43.3%
P2
40.7%
36.5%
P3
42.6%
43.2%
OT
42.9%
40.7%
Final 5 min
44.9%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 17:09 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 06:28 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 14:10 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 10:56 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 10:16 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 15:13 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 07:50 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 05:19 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |